UBS: China's demand for semiconductor equipment soars remarkably

By Kate Yuan

(JW Insights) Nov 1 -- China's demand for semiconductor equipment has increased significantly, said leading financial service provider UBS in one of its latest analysis report.

UBS predicts that from 2024 to 2025, China's demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment will further grow from $20.7 billion in 2023 to $23-26 billion, reaching a new historical high. This is mainly attributed to the steady expansion of China capital-intensive wafer fabs and the growth of other mature process capacities.

Yu Jia, analyst of UBS Securities, said that the market's initial expectation that China's semiconductor manufacturing equipment spending would remain flat between 2023 and 2025 was considered overly conservative.

UBS forecasts that China’s spending on chipmaking equipment will stand at $11.2 billion, $11.5 billion, and $13.3 billion in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, showing a 20% increase over the three years.

Furthermore, UBS expects that the market share of China-made equipment will almost double within three years. Currently, Chinese suppliers have narrowed the technology gap, and in the next 1-2 years, they are expected to continue gaining market share in areas such as etching, deposition, and cleaning, as well as making progress or breakthroughs in critical processes and applications.

UBS estimates that the average annual revenue growth rate of Chinese semiconductor equipment companies covered by their statistics will reach 39% from 2022 to 2025. Additionally, by 2025, the market share in Chinese wafer fabs will expand from 10% in 2022 to 19%.